The USA has begun a diplomatic offensive. The secretary of state, Mr Blinken, having recently returned from visiting a cluster of African countries, is now visiting a cluster of European ones. An assistant secretary of state is visiting a cluster of Southeast Asian countries. The purpose of these visits, we’re told, is to engage with allies and partners about mutual interests in support of the rules-based international order. Not much more is said than that. The offensive offers an opportunity to reflect on the past nine months of American diplomacy. What is it doing and what has it done? So far as one can tell, there are no major diplomatic initiatives, negotiations, or plans awaiting delivery. Those boxes are ticked, with one botched announcement of a submarine deal with Australia and Britain, and another, more badly botched withdrawal from Afghanistan. The president and the secretary did not escape criticism in those instances but neither man got his hands too dirty. Not getting hands dirty so far appears to be the main principle at play. There is an effort being waged by a special envoy, a boyhood friend of the secretary, to salvage the Iranian nuclear deal. There is another effort waged by a special envoy, a diplomat pulled out of retirement, to keep a larger regional conflict from breaking out in East Africa. There is yet another effort waged by a special envoy, the director of the Central Intelligence Agency, to stand between Russia and Ukraine as the two nations threaten to go to war. There is another such envoy, a holdover from previous administrations, overseeing diplomacy towards Iraq and Syria. And there is John Kerry shuttling around the world battling climate change. About the only major effort engaging the highest levels of the administration directly is its hostage diplomacy with the US Senate over the confirmation of presidential nominees. The president and the secretary are no doubt busy men and the former, at least, has other priorities, but delegating so many of the country’s diplomatic efforts to others gives a certain impression. It is not helped by the two bilateral ‘summits’ that have taken place between Mr Biden and his Chinese and Russian counterparts. More infomercials than summits, they resulted – so far as anyone has been told, at least – in no substantial agreement. The only significant item to emerge was the stern warning Xia Jinping gave to Mr Biden about Taiwan, a warning that has been played down by the American press. The lack of real discussion, let alone debate, over China and much else in US foreign policy probably suits the administration just fine. The little debate there is remains suspended inside an echo chamber filled with people who can’t stop saying the USA needs to be tougher and other people saying the USA hasn’t renounced the instruments of its power quickly enough. There’s been little real scrutiny otherwise. Going by recent experience then, the Biden team is a rather secretive lot that likes to surprise with sudden gestures. So maybe they have more policies hidden up their sleeve. Asked whether that is a welcome prospect, an administration spokesperson replied, ‘all options are on the table’. If you liked this post from Talleyrand, why not share it? © 2021 Talleyrand Unsubscribe |